This year marks the midpoint of a decade defined by major shifts in plastics and recycling policy. Here’s what to expect through the rest of the 2020s.
The start of a new year invites reflection – especially in 2026 – which marks the midpoint of a decade defined by major shifts in plastics and recycling policy. Since 2020, we have seen sweeping changes in legislation, infrastructure, and market expectations. The years ahead will test how well those policies translate into real, on‑the‑ground performance.
2020-2025: A Period of Unprecedented Policy Momentum
Between 2020 and 2025, plastics and packaging policy moved faster than at any time in recent memory. Key developments included:
• Packaging EPR expanded rapidly: Seven states adopted packaging EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) – covering 20% of the US population – and the formation of Circular Action Alliance (CAA) as an active Producer Responsibility Organization (PRO).
• Recyclability requirements accelerated: California and Minnesota required all packaging to be recyclable or compostable by 2032, while California also redefined how companies may use the chasing arrows recyclability symbol.
• Recycled content use grew – unevenly: Food and beverage companies used 50% more recycled PET in response to state requirements, but then shifted to buying recycled PET from overseas recyclers, which undermines domestic recycling infrastructure.
• Plastic pollution gained global urgency: The United Nations held six rounds of treaty negotiations, and 14 regional Plastics Pacts were established worldwide.
• Federal engagement returned: The US National Recycling Strategy and the Plastic Prevention Roadmap were released, EPA recycling grants were reinstated, and Congress discussed more recycling policies than it had in the prior two decades combined.
• Policy scope broadened: States and regulators turned greater attention to chemicals of concern, microplastics, chemical recycling, responsible end markets, reuse, and related issues. California’s SB 54 established a $5 billion plastic mitigation fund.
2026 Marks the Shift from Promise to Performance
The year 2026 will be pivotal as plastics recycling shifts from policy ambitions to measurable outcomes even as market pressures, political constraints, and legal challenges test the system. The focus will increasingly shift to implementation, including rolling out packaging EPR programs, stabilizing recycled content markets, expanding investments, and strengthening domestic manufacturing. Here are seven key trends to watch in 2026:
1. Packaging EPR becomes reality
2026 will be the first full year of Oregon’s EPR program and will see the launch of Colorado’s program in June. This represents a fundamental paradigm shift: for the first time in the US, producers are broadly responsible for funding packaging recycling systems. As these programs come online, it’s expected that:
• More households will have more recycling services.
• Education and outreach efforts will expand.
• Significant producer investments will expand recycling infrastructure.
• Recycling rates are expected to increase over time.
Packaging EPR will also continue to be a focus in state legislatures, particularly in New York and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in the near term. By 2030, movement is expected across the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest.
2. California continues to set the pace
All eyes will continue to be on California for plastics policy in 2026, shaping debates around EPR, plastics reduction, labelling, and recycled content. Key developments include:
• CAA is drafting its first Program Plan to meet SB 54’s recycling and plastic reduction requirements.
• By October 2026, packaging that does not meet California’s recycling criteria will no longer be permitted to use the chasing arrows symbol.
• Legislative activity will address recycled content mandates, support for in-state and domestic recycling, restrictions on chemicals of concern, and more.
California’s decisions will influence policy approaches well beyond its borders.
3. Recycled content markets seek immediate stabilization
The past two years have been difficult for plastic recyclers in the US and EU, with many facilities closing or scaling back due to weak demand. 2026 must be a turning point. Stabilizing recycled content markets will require:
• Stronger recycled content policies with higher targets, more product categories, and greater compliance.
• Long-term contracts.
• Coordinated state and federal investment in domestic recycling infrastructure.
Without these signals, recycling infrastructure will not grow enough to meet required upcoming recycling rates.
4. Complementary policies will drive scale
Experience has made one lesson clear: EPR alone cannot deliver a circular economy. As a result, states are increasingly advancing complementary policies to:
• Increase recycled content use.
• Accelerate reuse/refill adoption.
• Improve on-pack labeling.
• Reduce the use of chemicals of concern.
• Require design for recyclability.
• Drive public and private investments in the reuse and recycling infrastructure.
Together, these policies can reinforce one another and unlock system-wide progress.
5. Recycling as a domestic manufacturing strategy
A growing narrative reframes recycling as essential to US economic competitiveness and supply-chain resilience. Recycling is increasingly positioned as part of the domestic manufacturing strategy, one that reduces reliance on imports and strengthens US industry.
Federal initiatives such as the CIRCLE Act and the ReMade in America campaign reflect this shift, integrating recycling into broader conversations about industrial policy and domestic production.
6. North America moves toward harmonization
Packaging EPR is now firmly the approach in North America.
• Canada continues to lead the way with 98% of its population covered by packaging EPR and extensive efforts by the PROs to harmonize lists of what is recyclable, guidelines on eco-design, and more.
• Mexico is following suit with the adoption of its comprehensive new federal Circular Economy law that introduces mandatory obligations for producers and importers, including EPR, circular design requirements, take-back systems, and traceability.
Greater coordination across borders will improve efficiency, reduce costs, keep resources in regional circulation, and strengthen a resilient North American recycling system.
7. Global progress raises the bar
International developments continue to push ambition higher:
• The global plastic treaty negotiations demonstrated that 100 countries are strongly committed to improving recycling and reducing plastic pollution.
• The EU’s Packaging and Waste Regulation (PPWR) transitioned from general guidance to official regulations that set strong targets on recyclability, recycled content, recycling quality, reduction and reuse, and more.
• Countries and regions are increasingly investing in domestic recycling capacity, including requirements for domestically-sourced recycled content in Columbia and France’s robust eco-modulation incentives tied to recycled content produced in the EU.
Effective Policy Essential To A Circular Plastics Future
All of this underscores a simple reality: there has never been a more consequential – or more exciting – time to work in plastics recycling. Despite the inevitable ups and downs of the policy cycle, the long-term trend is unmistakable: effective policy remains essential for designing recyclable packaging, collecting higher‑quality materials, increasing use of recovered plastic, and investing in domestic recycling infrastructure. When we do that, we will realize a future where all plastics are recyclable and made from recycled content.
Kate Bailey is Chief Policy Officer at the Association of Plastic Recyclers.
